Budanov states that Russia desires to end the war by 2026

Budanov states that Russia desires to end the war by 2026

Russia aims to end the war by late 2025 - early 2026 with results in its favor, as significant economic problems and the necessity for mobilization threaten it from the summer of 2025, which could undermine the socio-political situation. This was stated by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence, Kyrylo Budanov, based on Russian data.

«The year 2025, the turn of 25 - early 26, is critically important for them. They want to end all this, because according to their own estimates, if the Russian Federation does not emerge from this war as conditional victors, then in the foreseeable future - a horizon of 30 years - they will lose the opportunity to see Russia as the superpower they strive to be», he noted at the 20th annual YES meeting in Kyiv on September 13-14, organized by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation.

Budanov pointed out that Russia predicts that «all their problems will begin in the summer of 2025» as financial-economic and socio-political factors combine.

According to him, currently the Russian Federation is reacting adequately to the worsening economic situation, understanding that there is a decline, which has already become noticeable and painful.

«But this is not yet the peak. They predict that around the summer of 2025, the negative impact on the economy will become very noticeable for their country. This, by the way, is connected with numerous processes that they are now trying to accelerate in their state to enter this period as they would like. They would like to end everything with their victory, unfortunately», Budanov added.

According to him, in Russia the issue of the shortage in the army is becoming increasingly acute. «During this period (summer of 2025), they will face a dilemma - either to announce mobilization or to reduce the intensity of hostilities, which could become critical for them», noted the head of Ukrainian military intelligence.

He believes that there is indeed war fatigue in Russia, despite any statements, as the war has already affected a large layer of the Russian population.

Budanov acknowledged that Russians openly rejoice that the aggressor was able to capture more than 30% of our territory, and also at the presence of high salaries in the Russian army. However, the number of volunteers is decreasing, which has led to an increase in one-time payments upon signing the contract up to 2 million UAH.

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence added that Ukraine’s efforts to transfer hostilities to Russian territory, inside the country, also affected the socio-psychological state of the population. «This changed the worldview of (Russians). Previously, the entire Russian population existed in the paradigm that, despite everything, we are a very powerful country, we are the strongest in the world... And with the first explosions, so to speak, in Moscow and on the territory of the Russian Federation, this myth was destroyed», Budanov explained.

The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, citing Russian documents, noted that if there is no Russian victory by the end of 2025, only two superpowers will remain in the world - the USA and China, and there will be no place for the Russian Federation among them.

«They clearly understand this. This is a key moment for them. Therefore, they will do everything possible to win in their understanding. Otherwise, they will be excluded from all global processes. All they can hope for is regional leadership, which does not satisfy them», Budanov concluded.